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- Hybrydowe modelowanie procesów demograficznych z wykorzystaniem rozmytych przyłączających układów dynamicznych
E-book details
Hybrydowe modelowanie procesów demograficznych z wykorzystaniem rozmytych przyłączających układów dynamicznych
Agnieszka Rossa, Lesław Socha, Andrzej Szymański
Umieralność i prawidłowości z nią związane są przedmiotem dociekań od wielu stuleci. Za ojca metodologii tablic wymieralności uznaje się J. Graunta, który w roku 1662 opublikował pracę „Natural and Political Observations Made upon the Bills of Mortality”. Kontynuatorem badań Graunta był angielski astronom E. Halley. Autorem współczesnej metodologii budowy tablic wymieralności jest C. L. Chiang. Gwałtowny rozwój teorii i zastosowań modeli umieralności obserwujemy szczególnie w ostatnich czterech dekadach, czego dowodem jest też niniejsza książka. Przedstawione są w niej najnowsze modele umieralności, które umożliwiają prognozowanie procesu wymierania populacji w perspektywie średnio- i długookresowej. Autorzy omawiają kolejne modyfikacje modelu Lee-Cartera, wykorzystując teorię równań różniczkowych, algebry liczb rozmytych oraz algebry liczb zespolonych. Zastosowanie tych struktur pozwala na modelowanie umieralności, a następnie na wskazanie własności prognostycznych poszczególnych modeli. W sytuacji starzenia się społeczeństw w krajach rozwiniętych proponowane modele mogą znaleźć zastosowanie m.in. w planach emerytalnych i ubezpieczeniach na życie.
- Title: Hybrydowe modelowanie procesów demograficznych z wykorzystaniem rozmytych przyłączających układów dynamicznych
- Author: Agnieszka Rossa, Lesław Socha, Andrzej Szymański
- ISBN: 978-8-3808-8042-9, 9788380880429
- Date of issue: 2016-08-11
- Format: Ebook
- Item ID: e_08hi
- Publisher: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego